7 months ago

What Quitters Tell Us About the Economy - Wall Street Journal

By Justin Lahart Dec. 7, 2016 3:05 p.m. ET

One sign the labor market is warming up is more people are telling the boss to take this job and shove it. But their willingness to do that depends a lot of on what kind of work they doa difference that has implications for labor costs, and for what areas of the economy are likely to generate inflation.

As part of its monthly report on job openings and labor turnover, the Labor Department on Wednesday reported that the private-sector quits ratethe share of workers voluntarily quitting their jobscame to 2.3% in October. That compares with a low of 1.4% in September 2009, and is close to the average levels of the mid-2000s. A higher quits rate (which excludes retirees), is a sign of a more vibrant job market: People tend not to quit their old job if they dont think they can get another one.

Not everyone is quitting like they used to, however. The quits rate for service-sector workers has mounted a strong recovery. But the rate for workers in goods-producing industriesmanufacturing, construction, mining and logginghasnt gained back as much ground. At 1.5%, it is well below the high of 2% it ticked in the mid-2000s.And because fewer people work in these industries, the absolute number of people quitting is even lower.

Goods-sector workers dont have much leverage to ask for higher wages. Since wages feed into prices, the divide between hotter services inflation, and colder goods inflation, may only get wider.

Write to Justin Lahart at justin.lahart@wsj.com

9 months ago

Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania - New York Times

There is a complex relationship between the swing states that I model considering three things: the likely correlated impact of any major events or shocks in the days before Election Day (the correlated impact would be very high); the likely correlated errors between the polling and Election Day outcome (reasonably high); and the likely correlation of random chance on Election Day that affects voting (i.e., rain or shine, and this is not as high of correlation).

The fact that the probability of victory for Clinton in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania continues to be a few percentage points above her probability of winning the election reflects a very high correlation between the

12 months ago

Here's how the weak pound could wreck the UK's economy - MarketWatch

A decline in a currencys value typically benefits an economy by making goods and services produced within it more competitive on the global market. But for the U.K., it could be too much of a good thing.

These benefits take time to materializecompanies cant ramp up exports overnight. And the U.K.s overreliance on foreign money means that the drop in the pound could drag its economy into a recession in the coming quarters, long before the benefits can be seen, said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

The pound 

1 year ago

With Wisconsin Loss Behind Him, Trump Heads to New York for Hometown Rally - ABC News

Following a tough loss in Wisconsin's GOP primary Tuesday, Donald Trump forged ahead, travelling Wednesday to Bethpage, New York -- located on Long Island, about 35 miles east of New York City -- where more than 10,000 supporters greeted him at a rally and chanted his trademark catchphrases, including "Build a Wall" and "Lyin' Ted."

"This is home," said Queens, N.Y.-born Trump, who lives in Manhattan and owns several properties near the rally's venue, Grumman Studios. "It's great to be home. We love New York."

Trump reminded the roaring audience of his New York roots, and spoke about his "New York values," in a nod to GOP rival Ted Cruz's pejorative usage of the term earlier this year.

"Do you remember during the debate, when he started lecturing me on 'New York values,' like we're no good," Trump said. "And I started talking to him about the World Trade Center, the incredible bravery of everybody, our police, firemen, everybody."

But Trump didn't stop there, and he continued his criticism of Cruz, who also was campaigning in New York Wednesday, ahead of the state's April 19 primary.

"Folks, I think you can forget about him," said Trump, which was followed by chants of "Lyin' Ted." Trump didn't mention the Wisconsin primary, which he lost to Cruz, during the rally.

Trump was introduced on stage by his daughter Ivanka, who gave birth to a boy, Theodore James, on March 27. She spoke to the crowd about her father's accomplishments and her family's New York roots.

"Many of those people live and work right here in New York, where my father myself was born, where he raised me and my siblings, and where he's lived his entire life," she said.

Trump's son Donald Trump Jr. also weighed in on being back in New York, telling ABC News' Tom Llamas, "It's home. There's no place like home."

The warm welcome at the rally comes after a rough ten days on the campaign trail, that included his campaign manager being charged with misdemeanor battery against a reporter, in addition to back-and-forth jabs with Cruz, involving their wives.

Trump ended his rally telling the energized crowd, "You're going to go out and vote and say it was the most important vote you ever cast."

2 years ago

Facing intense heat on McDonald shooting, Emanuel seeks to buy time with ... - Chicago Tribune

For the last week, Mayor Rahm Emanuel has been under fire from protesters and fellow elected officials in Chicago and from activists and pundits across the country to clean up his police department and fire his top cop Garry McCarthy following the release of a video that showed a white officer repeatedly shooting a black teenager before he died in the street.

On Tuesday, Emanuel will seek to quell some of the growing chorus of criticism by announcing a task force his administration says "will review the system of accountability, oversight and training that is currently in place for Chicago's police officers," according to a brief news release issued late Monday.

Appointing a

2 years ago

Multiple people injured by gunman at Planned Parenthood in Colorado Springs - Washington Post

Three police officers were injured in Colorado Springs when responding to a report of an active shooter situation on Friday, Nov. 27 near a Planned Parenthood center. (Reuters)

At least four police officers and an unknown number of civilians were injured Friday in a shooting at a Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado Springs, Colo., where police were still trying to contain the gunman and determine his identity and motive hours after the ordeal began.

Very little information was available about what transpired at the health center as evening drew near. Police described the scene as very active, with the suspect holed up in the clinic and gunshots still audible in the area.<

2 years ago

When Social Media Fuels Gang Violence

Facebook, YouTube and Twitter have become an everyday part of life for many young people and increasingly, the way some, including rival gang members, threaten each other.

The practice is called "cyber banging," and it's often led to fights and even death.

Jaime, 17, has been in a gang for two years and is trying to leave. NPR agreed to use only his first name for his safety. Logging onto a computer at the YMCA of Metro Chicago, he clicks on a video in his Facebook feed. It shows a group of young men mugging for the camera, flashing gang signs and guns. Jaime says it's one of many so-called gang pages online.

"Social media is just endorsement, that's all," he says. "To